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Kevin Kasaei's avatar

The forced-search versus default split is the right cut, and I think it still understates the problem. There is no single default answer to sample. The same prompt returns different text across sessions depending on routing and personalisation, so a mention rate is a distribution rather than a number, and one sample per prompt per month is noise presented as a trend line. The honest version of the report carries a sample size and a spread.

The other half is what you measure once you trust the sampling. Ahrefs compared 863,000 keywords against 4 million AI Overview citations this March: only 38% of cited pages ranked in Google's top 10, down from 76% in July 2025. Whatever earns a citation has decoupled from what earns a ranking. So brand mention counts tell you the score and almost nothing about the move. The unit that survives is the claim: which specific sentence got lifted, from which page, and attributed to whom. That is trackable in origin logs and it is the only thing you can actually go and change.

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