Incrementality tests failing?
đ The reason two quarters of incrementality testing changed nothing, and Meta doubles down on reach and AI advertising, and more.
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In this newsletter, youâll find:
đ The Reason Two Quarters of Incrementality Testing Changed Nothing
đ Meta Doubles Down On Reach And AI Advertising
đ„ Ad of the Day
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đ The Reason Two Quarters of Incrementality Testing Changed Nothing
Incrementality testing should end with a budget decision, not another meeting. If a study is done well, the outcome is usually straightforward: invest more because youâve found incremental growth, reallocate budget because another tactic performs better, or cut spend because the channel wasnât driving demand in the first place.
Yet many teams spend months running holdout tests and MMM studies only to leave every budget untouched. The measurement isnât usually what failed. The decision process is.
If none of those happen, the study produced information, not a business decision.
Where the process usually breaks
The sequence looks harmless.
Run the test.
Review the results.
Decide what they mean.
Decide what to do.
The mistake is hiding in steps three and four.
A result showing retargeting at 0.6x incremental ROAS isnât ambiguous. The debate begins because nobody agreed beforehand whether 0.6x was good enough to keep funding. Finance wants another quarter. Marketing wants another market. Leadership asks for one more validation cycle. The conversation shifts from evaluating the channel to negotiating the threshold.
The measurement didnât fail.
The governance did.
Write the decision before you know the answer
Every incrementality study should begin with a page that looks something like this:
Those rules are easy to agree on while the outcome is still unknown.
Theyâre remarkably difficult to rewrite once everyone knows which budget is about to lose funding.
Donât just identify the budget. Identify its destination.
Finding non-incremental spend answers only half the question.
The other half should already be documented. If Channel A loses $100,000, where does it go?
Search? Meta prospecting? Affiliate? CRM?
Leaving that decision until after the study guarantees another round of meetings, another round of opinions, and another month where nothing changes despite everyone agreeing with the findings.
Before commissioning the next incrementality study, make sure four things already exist:
A threshold that triggers action.
A predefined budget movement for every outcome.
An owner responsible for making that change.
A deadline for when the reallocation happens.
Incrementality shouldnât end with a presentation. It should end with money moving.
đ Meta Doubles Down On Reach And AI Advertising
Meta is expanding its lead in social media while introducing new AI advertising tools and stronger measurement capabilities for retailers.
Metaâs audience keeps growing: Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp have each surpassed 3 billion monthly active users, giving Meta the broadest social reach. Meanwhile, Threads has grown to 500 million users, continuing its rapid expansion.
AI can now rewrite your ad creatives: Metaâs updated Advantage+ Creative can generate new headline variations directly on existing ad images, preserving the original design, fonts, colors, and layout. It also produces improved AI-generated copy that advertisers can edit before publishing.
Offline sales now feed Metaâs AI: Lightspeed has launched a direct integration with Metaâs Conversions API, allowing brick-and-mortar retailers to automatically send point-of-sale data into Meta.
This helps advertisers measure offline sales, improve attribution, and optimize campaigns using real in-store purchase data.
Why It Matters
Meta is strengthening its advertising ecosystem on multiple fronts. Its massive user base continues to attract marketers, while better AI creative tools and offline conversion tracking give advertisers more ways to improve campaign performance and measure real business outcomes.
đ Ad of the Day
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