Channel Based Forecasting Guide
đ Micro-Forecasting by Channel: Why TikTok Deserves Its Own SKU Map, Google Ads Just Got a Major Intelligence Upgrade, and more!
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In this newsletter, youâll find:
đ Micro-Forecasting by Channel: Why TikTok Deserves Its Own SKU Map
đ Google Ads Just Got a Major Intelligence Upgrade
đ Ad of the Day
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đ Micro-Forecasting by Channel: Why TikTok Deserves Its Own SKU Map
Every channel doesnât just perform differently, it sells differently.
What moves fast on TikTok might barely register on Meta. Your hero SKU on Google might have double the return rate when sold through Instagram.
And yet, most DTC brands still plan inventory, allocate ad budgets, and forecast demand in one flat view.
Thatâs a mistake.
Modern acquisition isnât channel-based marketing, itâs channel-based forecasting.
One SKU, Five Behaviors
Letâs say youâre scaling a multi-variant product across TikTok, Meta, and email. Hereâs what actually happens:
TikTok pushes volume to Gen Z buyers who favor low-friction price points but spike return rates on certain colors.
Meta converts older demos, has higher AOV, and has more repeat potential but slower time-to-reorder.
Email lifts bundles, not singles, with high LTV but limited immediate velocity.
If you forecast all those together, youâll:
Under-order what TikTok actually sells fastest
Overstock SKUs that only convert in bundles
Misread blended CAC and attribution ROI
Now your stock plan is off. Your margin modelâs warped. Your campaign gets scaled in the wrong direction.
The Fix: Channel-Based SKU Forecasting
Top CMOs are now:
Building SKU maps per channel, not per catalog
Forecasting return rates and fulfillment lag by channel cohort
Syncing marketing calendars to platform-specific inventory velocity
Instead of asking âwhatâs selling?â they ask:
âWhere is it selling fastest, most profitably, and with the least operational drag?â
The Tool That Enables It
This is where Drivepoint becomes essential.
Trusted by brands like True Classic, Curology, and Oats Overnight, Drivepointâs forecasting templates help operators break out SKU behavior by acquisition source so your campaigns scale with inventory alignment, not just creative performance.
Download Drivepointâs free forecasting templates to start running micro-forecasts that match your marketing strategy to SKU behavior. Get them here.
If youâre forecasting like all channels behave the same, youâre not scaling, youâre guessing at scale. Treat every platform like its own store. Forecast accordingly.
đş Google NewFront: CTV Isnât Just for Streaming Anymore
Google is reimagining Connected TV (CTV) as a multi-format, multi-moment space beyond traditional streaming. With new Display & Video 360 upgrades, advertisers can now reach audiences across live sports, podcasts, short-form video, and shoppable content.
The Breakdown:
1. Display & Video 360 Expands CTV Access - DV360 now reaches 98% of CTV households, covering over 5 billion monthly hours of U.S. ad-supported viewing. Live inventory has grown 50% YoY, including NFL Sunday Ticket and Disney/NBCU events. New partners like Netflix (EMEA), Tubi, Spotify, and Roblox unlock video, audio, and gaming placements.
2. Retail Media Meets CTV - DV360 now supports commerce and retail media across platforms like Costco, Regal, and Intuit. Brands can target shoppers and measure in-store and online sales from YouTube and retail partner campaigns.
3. AI Supercharges Campaign Workflow - Google AI now helps plan, launch, and optimize campaigns inside DV360 with natural-language prompts. Advertisers can request deal suggestions, auto-fill targeting settings, troubleshoot pacing issues, and generate instant performance reports.
4. Biddable CTV and Curated Auctions Gain Ground - Programmatic CTV campaigns are growing twice as fast as guaranteed deals. Google now offers curated, one-click CTV auctions pulling top biddable inventory from premium publishers.
Google is evolving DV360 into an AI-enhanced hub for reaching modern viewers wherever they scroll, shop, or stream. These upgrades position DV360 as the most complete and intelligent demand-side platform for future-proof CTV campaigns.
đ Ad of the Day
What Works:
âA New Wave of Hydrationâ mimics the language of innovation, mirroring how tech products launch, not just beverages.
âHydrogen waterâ sounds high-tech and backed by performance science, even if the buyer isnât 100% sure how it works, the phrasing builds perceived superiority.
âIncreased Absorption + Cellular Balanceâ isnât just hydration, itâs optimized living. This taps into the health-conscious consumerâs desire for scientific legitimacy.
The silhouettes with glowing highlights feel straight out of a lab or sci-fi movie, this primes the viewer to associate the product with cutting-edge health trends.
Large, bold headline lead, followed by a precise benefit line, and anchored by the product name. The clean layout supports fast scanning without distractions.
Broader Insights:
This isnât selling water, itâs selling bio-upgrade. The ad creates a futuristic health narrative that flatters the viewerâs identity as someone whoâs early to every innovation. The blend of sleek visuals and benefit-driven copy drives aspiration, trust, and desire, especially in a premium wellness market.
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