Boxing Day Steals From January
đŹThe Demand Carryover that Cannibalizes Q1, Media buyer index of the week, and more!
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In this newsletter, youâll find:
đŹ Boxing Day Steals From January
đ Paid media costs fall returns split
đ Ad of the Day
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đŹ Boxing Day Steals From January
Boxing Day numbers often look impressive. Revenue spikes, ROAS improves, and cash flows in. Teams celebrate a strong finish to the year. Then January feels oddly quiet. This isnât just bad luck or seasonal changes. Itâs the Demand Carryover Illusion.
Not all Boxing Day revenue is new. A significant part is taken from future sales. Some buyers who would have shopped in January make their purchases early due to different conditions. The illusion comes from confusing timing with growth.
Why This Happens (and Why Dashboards Miss It)
Boxing Day combines several buying motivations into one moment:
- Holiday emotions havenât fully faded.
- Rational budgeting hasnât kicked in yet.
- Price sensitivity is temporarily low.
Buyers who usually need time to think act quickly because urgency and discounts outweigh their caution. Dashboards show a win, but they miss the drop that follows. January demand doesnât vanish; it arrives drained.
Strategy 1: Separate âPulled Demandâ From âNew Demandâ
The first solution is to think differently. Stop viewing all Boxing Day buyers as the same. Segment them after purchase based on:
- First-touch timing
- Required discount depth
- Bundle vs. single-SKU behavior
High-discount, single-item buyers are often driven by demand. Treating them as new customers can inflate LTV assumptions and skew Q1 planning. The goal isnât to cut these sales but to analyze them separately.
Strategy 2: Replace Discounts With Temporal Friction
Instead of pushing harder on price, introduce time-based limits: delayed fulfillment with bonuses, January delivery options, or âNext cycleâ access rather than instant rewards.
This keeps revenue intact while preventing future intent from collapsing into the present. Youâre changing when value is delivered, not just how cheaply.
Strategy 3: Design Boxing Day as a Bridge, Not a Cliff
Many brands end Boxing Day abruptly. Smarter brands treat it as a transition. Boxing Day offers can lead into January programs. Bundles can unlock future products, not just clear out inventory.
Credits or perks can only be used after the holiday. The aim is to carry demand safely into Q1 instead of wasting it in December.
Strategy 4: Protect Margin Memory, Not Just Margin
Customers donât remember every discount; they remember the last one. If Boxing Day teaches buyers to expect high value, January pricing can feel like a punishment. Use value-adds, exclusivity, or sequencing instead of deeper cuts.
The Final Insight
Boxing Day isnât risky due to discounts; itâs risky because it confuses demand timing. Successful brands donât ask, âHow much did we make?â They ask, âHow much did we take from ourselves?â Then they create systems to give it back on their terms.
đ Paid media costs fall returns split
Northbeamâs Media Buyer Index for Dec 16â22 reflects the post-holiday slowdown across paid media. Costs dropped widely, but business outcomes diverged by platform. The data separates cheap traffic from profitable traffic.
The Breakdown:
1. CPCs - CPCs fell across Meta, Google, Amazon, TikTok, YouTube, Microsoft, Pinterest, and Snapchat as competition cooled, creating easier entry points for testing and scaling, but results depended heavily on traffic quality rather than price alone.
2. CACs - CAC improved on Meta, Google, and TikTok while rising on Amazon, YouTube, Pinterest, Microsoft, and Snapchat, showing that lower costs only helped where intent, creative, and conversion paths were already strong.
3. ROAS - ROAS increased on Meta +6.76%, Amazon +2.11%, and YouTube +5.01% but declined on TikTok â7.28%, Google â0.51%, Microsoft â13.39%, Pinterest â13.23%, and Snapchat â11.77%, reinforcing that efficiency gains come from execution, not discounts.
Meta still commands 63.57% budget share with rising ROAS, keeping it the most dependable performance channel. Google holds 26.03% of spend but saw ROAS soften slightly. This is a reminder to follow profitable scale, not just cheaper clicks.
đ Ad of the Day
What Works:
1. That flavor combo makes you stop - Chili and chocolate together just mess with your head in a good way. You donât scroll past because youâre already imagining how that would taste.
2. Two names, less doubt - Seeing Raaka next to Momofuku makes this feel like a safe experiment. Even if youâre unsure about spicy chocolate, you trust the people behind it enough to give it a shot.
3. Limited, but chill about it - They say itâs limited without freaking out about it. That makes it feel special, not desperate, like something youâll regret missing rather than something being pushed on you.
This ad works because it makes trying something new feel exciting but not risky. It sparks curiosity, builds trust, and lets your imagination finish the sale.
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